It Started: Homebuyer Demand Just Collapsed – Buyers Getting 20-40% Discounts!
From Graham Stephan.
Watch this video on YouTube ↗
Download the FREE Upside App here https://yt.link/rxTTB4m and use code Graham25 to get an extra 25 cents back per gallon on your first tank of gas! Thank you Upside for sponsoring this video! | Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
FOLLOW MY INVESTMENTS / STOCKS HERE: https://getblossom.onelink.me/SOfu/grahamstephan
START BUILDING WEALTH WITH MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://grahamstephan.substack.com
NOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A GOOD TIME TO BUY
Mortgage rates are around 7.5%, affordability is near record lows, and most people think buying a house right now is a terrible idea. But beneath the surface, the housing market is shifting in a way we have not seen in more than a decade. Sellers now dramatically outnumber buyers, pending sales have fallen, and buyers are finally gaining leverage.
THE AFFORDABILITY TRAP
The median home sold for roughly $417,500 in September, while mortgage rates have moved sharply higher. On the same house, a higher interest rate can add hundreds of dollars per month to the payment. Buying a home has rarely been this expensive on a monthly basis, which explains why so many buyers have stepped away.
THE HOUSING MARKET IS SPLITTING
There is no single housing market. Some cities have fallen significantly from their pandemic highs, while others continue reaching new records. Austin, parts of Florida, Seattle, San Jose, and Orlando have seen weakness, while several markets in the Northeast and Midwest remain much stronger.
WHY SOME MARKETS ARE FALLING
Many of the weakest markets built enormous amounts of new housing during the boom. Prices also rose much faster than local incomes could support, while insurance, taxes, and other ownership costs increased dramatically. When demand slowed, those markets were left with too much inventory and not enough buyers.
WHY OTHER MARKETS KEEP RISING
Many Northeast and Midwest markets have the opposite problem. There are still relatively few homes for sale, limited new construction, and prices that started from more affordable levels. That supply shortage has helped keep prices elevated even while mortgage rates remain high.
SELLERS NOW OUTNUMBER BUYERS
Redfin found there are roughly 62.6% more sellers than buyers, the largest gap in its records going back to 2013. Around 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metros are now considered buyer's markets, giving qualified buyers significantly more negotiating power than they had just a few years ago.
SELLERS ARE CUTTING PRICES
A record share of homes for sale have received price cuts, homes are taking longer to sell, and pending sales remain near historic lows. In some markets, people who bought near the peak are now listing their homes for less than they originally paid.
WHY LOWBALL OFFERS CAN WORK
Almost no competition, rising inventory, expensive mortgages, and the slower holiday season can create motivated sellers. Instead of paying asking price, buyers may be able to negotiate a lower purchase price, closing costs, repairs, or even a mortgage rate buydown.
THE 2011 COMPARISON
When I started buying real estate around 2011, almost everyone believed housing was still a terrible investment. Prices had already collapsed, buyers were afraid, and most people wanted to wait until things felt safer. That fear ultimately created some of the best buying opportunities of the entire cycle.
TODAY IS NOT 2011
Home prices are much higher today, mortgage rates are higher, and there is no guarantee prices have bottomed. I also do not expect the kind of appreciation we saw after 2020. But the sentiment and lack of buyer competition are beginning to look very different from the housing market of just a few years ago.
WHAT I WOULD DO
If you need to buy a home, this may be one of the better environments in years to negotiate aggressively. Take your time, stay within a payment you can comfortably afford, and submit offers at prices where the numbers actually make sense. You do not need to predict the exact bottom. You just need to find a deal good enough that you are comfortable owning it even if prices fall a little further.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro: Buying A Home In 2026
00:01:08 - The Affordability Trap
00:02:33 - The Housing Split
00:05:43 - How To Save More Money
00:07:38 - Seller Panic
00:11:01 - Buying The Crash
00:14:28 - My Thoughts On Buying vs Waiting
For business inquiries, you can reach me at grahamstephanbusiness@gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.
FOLLOW MY INVESTMENTS / STOCKS HERE: https://getblossom.onelink.me/SOfu/grahamstephan
START BUILDING WEALTH WITH MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://grahamstephan.substack.com
NOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A GOOD TIME TO BUY
Mortgage rates are around 7.5%, affordability is near record lows, and most people think buying a house right now is a terrible idea. But beneath the surface, the housing market is shifting in a way we have not seen in more than a decade. Sellers now dramatically outnumber buyers, pending sales have fallen, and buyers are finally gaining leverage.
THE AFFORDABILITY TRAP
The median home sold for roughly $417,500 in September, while mortgage rates have moved sharply higher. On the same house, a higher interest rate can add hundreds of dollars per month to the payment. Buying a home has rarely been this expensive on a monthly basis, which explains why so many buyers have stepped away.
THE HOUSING MARKET IS SPLITTING
There is no single housing market. Some cities have fallen significantly from their pandemic highs, while others continue reaching new records. Austin, parts of Florida, Seattle, San Jose, and Orlando have seen weakness, while several markets in the Northeast and Midwest remain much stronger.
WHY SOME MARKETS ARE FALLING
Many of the weakest markets built enormous amounts of new housing during the boom. Prices also rose much faster than local incomes could support, while insurance, taxes, and other ownership costs increased dramatically. When demand slowed, those markets were left with too much inventory and not enough buyers.
WHY OTHER MARKETS KEEP RISING
Many Northeast and Midwest markets have the opposite problem. There are still relatively few homes for sale, limited new construction, and prices that started from more affordable levels. That supply shortage has helped keep prices elevated even while mortgage rates remain high.
SELLERS NOW OUTNUMBER BUYERS
Redfin found there are roughly 62.6% more sellers than buyers, the largest gap in its records going back to 2013. Around 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metros are now considered buyer's markets, giving qualified buyers significantly more negotiating power than they had just a few years ago.
SELLERS ARE CUTTING PRICES
A record share of homes for sale have received price cuts, homes are taking longer to sell, and pending sales remain near historic lows. In some markets, people who bought near the peak are now listing their homes for less than they originally paid.
WHY LOWBALL OFFERS CAN WORK
Almost no competition, rising inventory, expensive mortgages, and the slower holiday season can create motivated sellers. Instead of paying asking price, buyers may be able to negotiate a lower purchase price, closing costs, repairs, or even a mortgage rate buydown.
THE 2011 COMPARISON
When I started buying real estate around 2011, almost everyone believed housing was still a terrible investment. Prices had already collapsed, buyers were afraid, and most people wanted to wait until things felt safer. That fear ultimately created some of the best buying opportunities of the entire cycle.
TODAY IS NOT 2011
Home prices are much higher today, mortgage rates are higher, and there is no guarantee prices have bottomed. I also do not expect the kind of appreciation we saw after 2020. But the sentiment and lack of buyer competition are beginning to look very different from the housing market of just a few years ago.
WHAT I WOULD DO
If you need to buy a home, this may be one of the better environments in years to negotiate aggressively. Take your time, stay within a payment you can comfortably afford, and submit offers at prices where the numbers actually make sense. You do not need to predict the exact bottom. You just need to find a deal good enough that you are comfortable owning it even if prices fall a little further.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro: Buying A Home In 2026
00:01:08 - The Affordability Trap
00:02:33 - The Housing Split
00:05:43 - How To Save More Money
00:07:38 - Seller Panic
00:11:01 - Buying The Crash
00:14:28 - My Thoughts On Buying vs Waiting
For business inquiries, you can reach me at grahamstephanbusiness@gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.
